I sit down to write about the challenges of geopolitics in the new year after the U.S. Congress confirmed Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as the next president and vice-president respectively, and in the wake of the fateful incidents on Capitol Hill. Both events will leave their mark on the world this year, and dare I say it, the years to come.
The crazy chain of events that have taken place since November 3 lead me to the following conclusions:
- The United States’ electoral process, once considered a symbol of democracy, has taken a direction that would have been unthinkable until recently.
- The president openly questions the validity of the results, despite myriad appeals having been rejected by the courts.
- This misleading message has been taken up by those who voted for President Trump, with 85% of them believing that the elections were rigged.
- The president directly pressured different actors in the electoral process, such as the secretary of state of Georgia, to reverse the result.
- And finally, that a group of violent extremists, stirred up by their leader’s inflammatory rhetoric, stormed Congress, the ultimate symbol of representative democracy, with consequences that are now widely known.
The final answer remains to be seen, while the form it takes will have a significant impact on the redesign of the future we aspire to. There is too much at stake to be a mere spectator
President-elect Biden's imminent arrival at the White House will be accompanied by very high expectations of change around the world, raising questions like these: How to recover the confidence and respect of the rest of the world in the US model of government? How to convince the world that this is an isolated event and that there is no danger of recurrence when such a divided society votes again in 2022 or 2024? How to reinstall itself as the champion of democracy and reinforce its values around the world? How to prevent those who believe in alternative models from questioning the authority by which the United States exercises its capacity for persuasion and influence?
At a time when international cooperation, multilateralism, and the essence of the post-World War II order, with democracy at its center, are being questioned, it is essential that the United States recovers its position of influence in the world. The president-elect has indicated that he hopes to resume the position the country has historically occupied, and that he hopes to be accompanied by other countries with similar outlooks. But there is a risk that domestic tensions will monopolize the attention of the new administration when it comes to setting international priorities.
The existing model of capitalist liberal democracy is in need of an overhaul. The growing demands of those left behind need answers. Inequality and a lack of opportunity and social mobility have alienated people from their governments, calling into question democracy's ability to solve real world problems. The effects of technological disruption and digitalization are deepening; the pandemic has only accelerated them.
It is essential that we find a model capable of providing solutions to all those who have been left behind, one that recognizes that only through international cooperation sustainable social, economic and environmental policies can prevent greater evils. The COVID crisis is another call to face the future from a new perspective.
What we have seen in recent weeks in the United States is a wake-up call for all of us; it is a reflection of the prevailing mood in many parts of the world. In late 2019 and early 2020 we saw how large numbers of people took to the streets to protest against their governments, mobilizing for different, sometimes irreconcilable, causes and united behind the common goal of demanding change and specific outcomes. All this has been frozen by the pandemic and restrictions on movement. I am sure that once the pandemic abates, the streets will once again be the scene of new protests.
The basic question is whether all this, including the most recent events in Washington, will serve to reinforce traditional values and principles, adapting them to the demands of the 21st century, with the United States regaining its role as part of the international community, or whether it will weaken them, with consequences that are difficult to predict and that could further weaken our democracies. And, as a backdrop, there is the geopolitical confrontation between China and the United States, which will condition the dynamics of dialogue and negotiation. It is in this space that the European Union can and must play the role of bridge builder in those instances where differences appear irreconcilable.
All this without losing sight of the fact that there are many actors, from governments to political parties, social movements and networks, interested in propagating alternative models. Some propose a vision rooted in authoritarianism, prioritizing economic development and justifying restrictions on basic rights and freedoms. The final answer remains to be seen, while the form it takes will have a significant impact on the redesign of the future we aspire to. There is too much at stake to be a mere spectator.
